US exports of crude oil and related products have fallen considerably since the trade war started, he added. During the four months of July-October 2019, the latest data available from the US Energy Information Agency, exports averaged about 7.2 million barrels per month, or about half the volume during the same period of 2017.
Questions remain about whether China can double its agricultural purchases from about US$20 billion in 2016, before the trade war began, to US$40 billion, as the Trump administration is touting.
But Rosa Wang, Shanghai-based analyst at agricultural data provider JCI China, said that she was “quite confident” that China could meet the targets. She suggested that most of the expenditure would be on soybeans, followed by smaller purchases of nuts and fruits, pork, poultry, corn, sorghum and ethanol by-products.
The deal will bolster intellectual property protection, and also has chapters on forced technology transfer, currency, and market access to key sectors in the Chinese economy, including financial services and agriculture.
It will contain an enforcement provision, through which the US will be unilaterally be able to reimpose tariffs should China not hold to its commitments, including the purchase agreements.
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said in an interview with US broadcaster NPR on Monday that the enforcement mechanism permits US trade representative Robert Lighthizer to reimpose tariffs within a 90-day period.
“And if he thinks that hasn't been addressed properly, we have [the right to impose a] proportionate response and the Chinese have promised not to retaliate,” said Navarro.
Finbarr Bermingham reports for the South China Morning Post from Hong Kong and Ben White and Doug Palmer report for Politico from New York and Washington, respectively.